Question remains unanswered

With every election the answer to the following question gets murkier and murkier...

What makes a party win an election?

• Previous record
• Current performance of itself and opposition
• Strength of the opposition
• Caste
• Leadership
• Alliance
• Money power
• Loss of choice for the voter
• Corruption
• Candidate profile
• Promises
• etc 
• etc

These and many more form a matrix, which is hard to crack. And this makes the GREAT Indian democracy really GREAT.

BJP won the BBMP elections by a handsome margin, beating all predictions. Lets see what the current BJP govt has done.

Previous to this civic elections, BJP was nowhere in BBMP (this is the first time BJP has got to power in a civic body in South India). Their performance as govt of Karnataka was below expectation. Acute power shortage, no hikes for govt officials, transfer corruption, NICE controversy, water scarcity, vulgar money power of miners (CM acknowledged this), infra projects not progressing, frustration internal quarrels spilled out in public etc etc Still BJP won the polls hands-down. We also have a divided and a leaderless opposition which has helped BJP.

Of-course there are some good work done by them.

They have utilized the JNurm funds for having good roads and good buses. The compound walls of govt establishments are now beautifully painted (making the city look better).

Even with these good points, can anyone from BJP answer the question which i posted above with honesty and sincerity. I bet NO. The question couldn't be answered by Congress when they beat Vajpayee's BJP\NDA to head India.

Its better that state BJP realize that we have given them another chance to prove their worth. Repay us with good work for our votes.

Congrats and Good luck to BJP!

The immediate effect for sure will be increase in cost of living...

Candidates would want to get back the money they spent in elections, so some projects will start in each constituency.

A better question to end the post -  

Will Bangaloreans enjoy a better life under the new BBMP setup?

     

Successful predictions?

Yesterday was celebration time for BJP in Bangalore. They made a clean sweep of the local BBMP polls.

Let me check about my prediction(March 29th blog) of the BBMP elections. 

*Source of actual results is the official website 

As I predicted, BJP won my constituency by 300 votes. I expected a bigger margin. (161, Hosakerehalli).

No survey predicted this victory for BJP. Check DNA page 1 today.

Even BJP did not expect these many seats. Their expectation was to win 104 seats.

Given these facts, mine was still pretty good prediction, I suppose! Got it slightly wrong on BJP's numbers. Error of 3% in the overall results is acceptable. What say friends? 

Now how did I make this prediction.

Bangaloreans have stood with BJP since sometime. BJP won most of the assembly seats of the city. BJP also swept the Lok Sabha seats of Bangalore. And BJP was united in Bangalore for the BBMP elections. The opposition on the other hand had no issue to highlight and were thoroughly dis-integrated. All this made BJP a clear favorite. 

The other source of information was the talk with the small time party leaders who are actually involved in the campaigning. This provides some insights on what the pattern is across different wards.

But the most important source for prediction is MY GUT FEEL.

Hope some channels are reading this and may want to avail my services for the next election....

He he...kidding :-)

Enough of blowing my own trumpet !

    

I did vote!

From Different angle!

My prediction of the verdict

This blog is scheduled for publishing after the elections. I am writing this on 27th, the day before BBMP elections. Not sure if the constitution and judiciary will allow publishing of "opinion polls" before elections.


My prediction is

BJP will win 100-105 seats
JDS will win  8-15 seats
Congress will win 65-70 seats

Independents - 5-8 seats


BJP will win my constituency (161, Hosakerehalli).


Not really sure if, I want my prediction to be correct!

whom to vote?

The Dday is fast approaching. March 28. People of the city will decide what will decide the fate of the BBMP candidates and in-turn decide the fate of the beautiful city called Bengaluru.

There are 4 important candidates in my constituency. There are a lot more i suppose.
3 from the major 3 parties. 1 independent.

I know one candidate since I was a kid. It looks like, this is his problem. I know him so well that I know his weaknesses. And this is overwhelming reason not to vote for him.

Then there is another candidate known in my locality as a good guy. He is not so rich. I know a little about him. But he is representing a party which I hate.  I am also pretty sure that he will not win. So my vote may go waste, if i press the button against his name.

The last party candidate is also known to be a good person. Reports say that he has done lot of good work for his village. But he is in the constituency since 6 months only. So does not know much about the problems. He is filthy rich and I am skeptical about his visions (please note - there are also rumors that he owns a good number of bars and that's his main source of income).

I don't know much about the latter two, apart from what people and news reports say.

Lets come to the independent candidate.
Being an independent - He is a sure shot looser. Tragic. He is one who has a good vision. My father has worked with him at an association of local residents.

He has taken some initiatives to get traffic signals, new buses to the constituency. He is good but parties did not give him ticket. He can't spend money like how the others and so cant reach the masses.So my vote to him would be a waste.

Knowing a person well can be bad and\or useless. Hmm!

Is an unknown friend better than a known enemy? or vice-versa?

Campaign techniques for BBMP election

This election has been one where innovative campaigning is the flavor.
Some interesting ones here (without party names)

Gift for Ugadi
Did you expect saree, dhothi etc? They were there. But there was also a gift pack containing a kg of rice, dal, jaggery and oil. For the day after Ugadi (where some consume non-veg), people were given mutton. Live sheeps were also distributed for slaughter.

Respect - Candidates knock your door with their supporters. They fall at the feet of elderly people. Flat. Good exercise isn't it? Believe me, there are some oldies who fall for this fake respect.

Green campaign - People are gifted 2-3 saplings to plant. Lets make Bangalore green. But where to plant the saplings?

Cool drinks
Candidates distribute cool ayurvedic drinks (kashaya) in the parks where people do their early morning walks. It's hot outside and cool drinks (not the pesticide-wala) are welcome.
I have also seen parties distributing tender coconut water in signals. Message - See our greenery is vanishing, so temperatures are increasing, vote for us to see the garden city green. Amazing!

Water - Truck loads of water are being distributed to small colonies. Look what your party has done. We need to supply water. Vote us and you will have 24hr water at your doorstep.

Clean the area - Candidates and supporters sweep the roads, collect garbage in trucks. Again the message is - If you want such facility, vote for me.

Street dramas - Showing the plight of people under the current govt. And how the candidate can help solve the problems. Worth a watch - Lasts 15 mins.

Role plays - Autos with mikes play role plays (is the sentence correct?).
Guy1 - Hey, you look so sick? What happened?
Guy2 - I am having fever since 3 days?
Guy1 - Dint you go to doctor?
Guy2 - I cant afford it. And the govt hospital is in city market. How can I go there?
Vote for xyz to get hospitals at your locality.

Wondering what more can be seen....Today is Rama navami and bounty to fall on the laps of voters!
  

BBMP elections is here

Finally finally, there's going to be elections for Bengaluru corporation. After n number of years, n number of court cases, n number of reservation lists - we finally have a date when we need to get our nails painted. Its one great thing to happen. Happy for it. Kudos to the court for forcing the issue on the govt. Without the court order, govt would have postponed the election at-least by 8-10 months. By April 3rd we will have our corporators on the BBMP office.

Like every election, there are several burning issues to be addressed...Several more creep-up in every election.

Just some random thoughts on the BBMP election..

New constituencies
As Bengaluru grew, it was prudent to think of splitting the city into smaller chunks. So there are new constituencies. My previous constituency - Padmanabhanagar is split into 4 now. This has thrown up a new issue. Residents do not know which constituency they belong to. Hence they do not know who their candidate is. With no postures, paper hangings, less than 15 days of campaigning...its getting hard for the candidates and the residents to know each other. Not enough is done by govt, EC or whoever to educate the people.


Rich candidates want to be richer
Over the past 3 years, the city has made several people rich. No, its not because of the IT or BT sector. Its because of the real estate value. I can see this close to my place. People owned acres of farmland, used for cattle feeds, vegetables, ragi crops etc. These guys converted all their land into sites...and sold it at unimaginable prices making them rich instantly. Crime over land increased (my area has seen at-least 3 murders related to real estate). Lavish black money brought or bought charisma to land owners. Richness increased hunger for power & power kicked in the greediness to generate more money. Vicisous circle of power. These rich guys fund parties and hence are the candidates for this election. Will the rich politicians feel the pulse of the poor?

Lack of vision
Every candidate should give out a manifesto or a vision statement on how he would develop the constituency. Its really pathetic to hear candidates still talking about water, sewage, power. 60 yrs and still struggling with basic stuff. I don't' say that the real estate guys are not intelligent enough to have a vision. Their intelligence is just blinded by one vision - Money making!! Somebody needs to tell them that their land value would increase if there is all round development of the constituency.

Bribe for votes - Corrupt voters
I am not a preacher of anti-corruption. I have myself paid bribe to police at-least on one occasion. (Sometimes, I am silly to even boast of it as an achievement..Find it sic after doing it though). If the voters are corrupt, we just cant expect a non-corrupt candidate. My point to the voters is - Be corrupt but use your brain when you vote. Accept bribes from every candidate who tries to bribe. Vote for the one who you think is best. More often, it turns out that the highest bribe giver will get the votes. This is sad. In my area, there were already Ugadi bribes in kind. One party distributed dal, oil, jaggery, rice and other party distributed mutton the day after Ugadi! That is the last freebie voters would get until the next election...so don't hesitate to accept it.

Budget of Bangalore
How the budget for Bangalore distributed to constituency? This is not clear atall. Is it based on the development levels of constituency? Population? Growth prospects? number of malls in the area? Political clout of the candidate? I feel the last one has the major impact...So its even more critical to vote for the right candidate who has the vision and clout\backing to achieve the vision.


Sorry feeling that I do not have a magic wand to fix all the issues!
But vote..and consciously!

My other blogs on elections.
Chamarajpet-and-shimoga-elections
Screw a state
Laloo looses Bihar
Election time - The lady rocks!
   
No doubt, I am a big fan of the Indian election drama!!