Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Successful predictions?

Yesterday was celebration time for BJP in Bangalore. They made a clean sweep of the local BBMP polls.
Let me check about my prediction(March 29th blog) of the BBMP elections. 

*Source of actual results is the official website 

As I predicted, BJP won my constituency by 300 votes. I expected a bigger margin. (161, Hosakerehalli).
No survey predicted this victory for BJP. Check DNA page 1 today.
Even BJP did not expect these many seats. Their expectation was to win 104 seats.
Given these facts, mine was still pretty good prediction, I suppose! Got it slightly wrong on BJP's numbers. Error of 3% in the overall results is acceptable. What say friends? 
Now how did I make this prediction.

Bangaloreans have stood with BJP since sometime. BJP won most of the assembly seats of the city. BJP also swept the Lok Sabha seats of Bangalore. And BJP was united in Bangalore for the BBMP elections. The opposition on the other hand had no issue to highlight and were thoroughly dis-integrated. All this made BJP a clear favorite. 

The other source of information was the talk with the small time party leaders who are actually involved in the campaigning. This provides some insights on what the pattern is across different wards.

But the most important source for prediction is MY GUT FEEL.

Hope some channels are reading this and may want to avail my services for the next election....
He he...kidding :-)
Enough of blowing my own trumpet !


Anonymous said...

You are close,not perfect. It was not scientific.

Gallery 802 said...

Good calculation.

Lost in thoughts said...

true, it was not scientific.
Thanks Gallery!

Anonymous said...

U have a fucking great mind which can guess so closely